December 9, 2024 • 7 min read

Unpacking Google’s Search Market Share Decline: Causes & Future

Google is more than a company. It’s a market force unto itself, a brand so successful that “Googling” is now synonymous with searching for something on the Internet, even when plenty of other tools are available. But that reality recently underwent a shift that, while not itself drastic, could be a signal that the search engine marketing landscape is approaching a much larger change.

In this article, we’ll review the Google antitrust trial, examine the recent decline of Google’s search engine market share, and explore some possible reasons for that decline – including the rise of potentially transformative technology in SearchGPT.

The Google antitrust trial – a brief overview

In 2023, the U.S Justice Department took Google to trial while claiming that the search engine giant was using unfair or illegal tactics to not just maintain its dominant search market share but also prevent reasonable competition from threatening its position.

At a time when Google owned a whopping 90% of the market share in search, it was accused of using its extensive financial resources to secure major advantages. For example, Google paid Apple to make itself the default search engine on iPhones and similar Apple products.

Spanning 10 weeks and including testimony from major figures from Google, Apple, Microsoft, DuckDuckGo, and other organizations, the antitrust trial shined a bright light on some of the biggest questions facing the search engine market overall: will Google continue to maintain its effective monopoly on the search market, and more importantly, should it be allowed to?

The verdict: Google is an illegal monopoly

Nearly a year after the Google antitrust trial began, and nearly four years after the Justice Department first accused Google of illegal monopolization, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia ruled that Google had indeed been using illegal tactics to maintain its search market share.

Specifically, the ruling declared Google an illegal monopoly while claiming they had used a series of contracts to inappropriately disrupt the competitive process for its benefit. The Court noted several potentially harmful practices and contracts – for example, Google is the default search engine on many devices and platforms, and switching to a different search engine, such as Microsoft’s Bing, is more difficult than it ought to be.

The verdict is only the first step toward a change in Google’s practices. No remedy or penalties have been announced at the time of this writing, but possibilities could include:

A court injunction that terminates some or all of the contracts responsible for the illegal market disruption
Mandated data sharing between Google and its competitors
New rules requiring that smartphones and browsers offer users search engine choices during initial product or platform setup

The decline in Google’s search market share

The Court’s decision comes during a time when Google’s market share is slightly but noticeably declining, which is a significant shift after years of effectively undisturbed dominance.

Official data on search engine market share across the United States shows that Google has enjoyed its status as the top search dog for longer than anyone (arguably deservedly as the trendsetting search engine company).

Graph of Search Engine Market Share Worldwide from Oct 2019 to Nov 2024 from Statcounter.

However, the tech giant’s Worldwide market share has dropped in the last year. Google’s search market share went from 91.56% in Oct 2023 to 89.34%.

The decline of Google’s market share dominance is noteworthy, even if it isn’t industry shaking yet. It’s an intriguing sign that the broader search engine sector may be in the earliest stages of a transition to a new paradigm – and the exact shape of that paradigm is still in flux.

What the search engine market share shift could mean for marketing

It’s far too early to make definitive predictions about what brands will need to do if Google’s market share continues to decline. However, the search marketing future may be a more diverse, nuanced landscape, requiring increased agility from brands as they change their strategy.

Instead of only considering Google’s algorithm and preferences, brands could need to focus on:

Where specific audiences search
How audiences interact with search tools – marketing for voice searchers may well be different from marketing to social searchers, for example
How brands can optimize for various competing platforms

Why has Google’s market share dropped?

The antitrust case’s verdict is still very new, and without any severe penalties to contend with, it can’t be responsible for the market share drop. So, why has Google’s apparent hold on the market waned, even if only slightly? In our opinion, there are three key factors that have contributed and may continue to contribute to this shift.

Lowering trust in Google search results

In previous years, when someone wanted to know the answer to a question, they Googled it – and for the most part, they still do. But they don’t necessarily trust the answers they receive.

A 2021 survey around Americans most and least trusted digital platforms indicated that while over 65% of respondents said they trusted Google, only one in five said they would always trust the results they received from a search engine query (and since Google is the most-used search engine, this translates to not always trusting Google’s results). More importantly, 69% of respondents were worried about Google’s data collection policies.

The lack of trust in Google doesn’t just extend to average users. Advertiser trust in Google has also plummeted, particularly in the wake of the antitrust lawsuit. Information that came to light during the suit – such as the fact that Google sometimes increases costs for advertisers without telling them or Google’s vague statements about whether click-through data is part of its search index – has shown advertisers that they may not be able to take everything Google says at face value.

Changing search trends and habits

Coinciding with reduced overall trust in Google search results, certain generations – namely younger Gen Z or Alpha searchers – don’t default to Googling when they want to find something, especially when they’re shopping.

According to an eMarketer study, over half of U.S. consumers begin shopping searches on Amazon rather than Google, and Gen Z is more likely to use a search engine alternative compared to older generations. Those alternatives can include competing organizations such as Bing, but also include:

Social media platforms like TikTok or Instagram
Image or voice search with tools like Google Lens
AI tools and platforms or chatbots, such as ChatGPT or Bard

The more searchers leverage alternative means to scour the web for the answers they seek, the less market share Google can expect to keep in the years to come.

SearchGPT and its impact on the search market

OpenAI, the tech powerhouse behind ChatGPT, released a new tool, SearchGPT, for beta users in July 2024. This is only the most recent event in a broader search market development: the usage of artificial intelligence tools to find answers and search for users.

Early rollouts of AI search tools have been met with mixed results and responses. Still, it’s clear that AI’s advancement into the search sphere isn’t a question of “if” it will supplant traditional searches but “when,” given its ability to collect and present a vast amount of information quickly.

SearchGPT is still in its infancy, having just launched in October of 2024. But the lack of ads on the platform may build trust among the first adopters, who could assume that fewer ads translate to more accurate search results. Time will tell whether SearchGPT meaningfully moves the market share needle away from Google’s magnetic pull.

The future of the search market

So long as the Internet is the best place to find information quickly, tools for searching its vast amounts of information will be a necessity. Historically, the best tool has been Google. But as recent events have shown, that’s not guaranteed to be the case in the future, and companies need to be prepared to adjust their marketing strategies – particularly in terms of SEO marketing and search engine marketing.

That’s why partnering with an agile, adaptable agency is a wise idea. Our experienced analysts and strategists can help your brand not only survive any future search market changes but thrive in new marketing environments. Start a conversation today to learn what we can do to elevate your brand.